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Why we prefer a good narrative to the truth
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You know that many people are terrified of flying. However, they have no problem travelling by car, even though we all know that, statistically, planes are much safer than cars. Well… welcome to the base rate neglect. Our brain ignoring boring statistics and overvaluing vivid stories. That’s it. We constantly hear statistics about road accidents. But… When there is an aviation tragedy… well… you know what happens. Vivid memories. We like to believe we are purely rational beings making decisions based on data, logic, and a cold analysis of reality. BS. Spoiler: we are not. In fact, we are pretty pathetic when someone puts a statistic in front of us. Daniel Kahneman, a psychologist who won the Nobel Prize in Economics, explains that two tenants what hate each other live inside your head: System 1: fast, intuitive, and an absolute fan of vivid stories and gossip. System 2: slow, analytical, and lazier than lenders approving Change Notices. The great danger in business and in life is that System 1 takes control almost all the time. And System 2, instead of getting to work and checking the statistical data, simply agrees with System 1 to avoid spending energy. Does it sound familiar? Well… That is where most of our stupid mistakes come from. No matter how hard you try… this is what happens when you raise flags in your project and have even backed up yourself with amazing data. We prefer a good narrative to the truth. Apply this learning to politics… or to any room. If you wondered why good CEOs and people of success tell stories… Now you have your answer. In this week lesson… I explain a story. It is so real and so backed up… that systems 1 and 2 agree without hesitation. It’s about hand back in a PPP… And it is awesome… Once that you pass through that lesson… you’ll understand how to save millions… if not billions of dollars in a pipeline of PPP projects. You know where to click. ​The Room​ PD 1: If you liked this email, don't keep it in secret and forward it to a friend. They will thank you enormously one day. PD 2: If somebody has sent you this email and you want to receive emails like this yourself, visit vicentevalencia.com PD 3: If you want unsubscribe, click the link below. |
Vicente Valencia
Weekly insights on how to perform when it matters | High-stakes decisions. Real situations. No BS. | 👇JOIN +2k readers 👇
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